• Евгений Сергеевич РУДЕНКО Odesa National Maritime University, Odesa, Ukraine
  • Сергей Васильевич РУДЕНКО Odesa National Maritime University, Odesa, Ukraine
  • Анатолий Валентинович ШАХОВ Odesa National Maritime University, Odesa, Ukraine



cognitive model, portfolio of projects, risk, seaports infrastructure


Based on the concept of proactive program-oriented management and acceptable risk theory proposed a cognitive model of project portfolio management, which allows the decision maker to analyze the progress of the portfolio and the effectiveness of changes in its structure. As a cognitive model used a cognitive map of the situation, which represents basic laws and regularities of the observed situation as an oriented signed graph to the portfolio manager. The vertices of the graph are the factors (symptoms, characteristics of the situation), and arcs between them are cause-effect relationships. Each arc has a weight that reflects the factors strength of influence on each other. There are two types of cause-effect relationships: positive and negative. With a positive value of the coefficient increasing of cause-factor value leads to increasing effect-factor value, with negative - to decreasing. The article shows the result of using the cognitive model to assess the effectiveness of the implementation of safety projects portfolio at seaports.


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