DOI: https://doi.org/10.20998/2413-3000.2019.1326.3

METHOD FOR ANALYZING AND ASSESSING THE RISK COST OF AN INNOVATIVE PROJECT

Viktor Kosenko

Abstract


The subject matter of the study is the risks of an innovation project. The goal of the article is to develop a method for analyzing and assessing the risk of an innovative project based on specific risks taking into account the features of a particular project. The tasks to be solved included analyzing the peculiarities of risk management of an innovation project, determining a set of specific risks of the innovation project, developing a system of indicators for risk assessment, developing methods for qualitative assessment of the innovative project risk, developing a method for assessing the risk cost taking into account the features of the innovative project. The following methods were used: the system analysis, design approach, risk-oriented approach, heuristic methods for obtaining generalized indicators. The following results were obtained: the features of the innovation project risk were considered; two ways for accounting the generalized categories of the project risk were presented - relating to external and internal factors and in the context of risk assessment; the main stages of the risk management process were considered; the pattern for classifying specific risks of an innovative project was developed and factors for their assessment were specified; the elements of the pattern were presented in the form of tables indicating scores for probable values of each factor. The maximum score, by which the factors of each risk can be assessed, indicates its contribution to the integrated assessment, therefore, it can serve as a basis for determining relative weights. A type of non-linear relationship between a number of points and the probability of risk is given. The result of the project assessment involves assigning a risk group to it on the basis of the total innovation risk impact. To estimate the cost of a project risk, its innovation class should be determined according to a number of factors within the score scale. The cost of the integral risk of the innovation project is calculated taking into account its probability and the class of innovation. The developed method enables obtaining the integrated assessment of the risk of an innovative project based on expert scores within the score scale and taking into account the class of innovation in the project when assessing the cost of risk.

Keywords


innovative process; risk assessment; rating scale; risk cost; factors of specific risks

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